AIACC PROJECT

Name of Project: Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Coastal Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries (Part of the global AIACC Programme – Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change)

Project Duration: 3 years - June 2002 to June 2005

Brief Description of project Goals and Objectives: The project goal is to enhance the technical and human capacity of the Pacific Island countries to assess vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, including variability. The project has three main objectives: (1) to develop the "next generation" of integrated assessment methods and models, including the incorporation of "human dimensions" of vulnerability, adaptation options and economic evaluation procedures, for application at island and sub-island scales; (2) to implement, test and apply the improved methods in three case studies representing low atoll, high volcanic and large island situations; and (3) to build the in-country research capacity through training in, and transfer of, the advanced methods and models.

The project builds progressively on recent advances in integrated assessment and modeling carried out under the recent Pacific Island Climate Change Assistance Programme (PICCAP) and the World Bank funded case studies undertaken by USP, IGCI, SPREP and others in the region.

Project Outcomes: The main outputs of the project will be: (1) an innovative set of "next generation" of integrated assessment models and methods for the Pacific region, including generic model developments for improving integrated assessments that can implemented by SIDS elsewhere; (2) improved understanding and knowledge of climate change impacts and adaptations in the Pacific region, through application of methods to representative case study islands; (3) up-skilled personnel in three Pacific island countries who are capable of applying advanced assessment methods and of training others in their use; (4) enhanced technical capacity of the island countries to conduct research and assessment studies; (5) an improved Certificate Course on Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (offered by the University of the South Pacific, at Suva, Fiji) for sustainable capacity building in the region.

Institutional Arrangements for the Project: The main source of funding for the project is GEF with UNEP as the executing agency and START and TWAS as the implementing agencies. The project activities were carried as a team effort involving personnel from SPREP, IGCI (UoWaikato) and PACE-SD (USP). Relevant government department personnel were part of the field studies in Cook Islands and Fiji.

Achievements: The achievements of the AIACC Project in terms of the "next generation" Integrated Assessment Model – (SimCLIM), the fieldwork and capacity building components are listed below:

SimCLIM Model:
1. "open-framework" features to improve versatility and ease of application capacity for multi-scale (island, community-level, site-specific) applications – Capacity for multi-scale modeling.
2. sea-level scenario generator, which capacity for including regional and local components.
3. human dimensions components specifically feature of the built environment like buildings, roads and rural land use that could be affected by climate variability and extremes.
4. land use scenario generator that allows the user to examine the implications for vulnerability under assumptions about different pathways and controls on future growth and development.
5. improved coastal impact models that allow first-order assessments of impacts and adaptations to tropical cyclones.
6. capacity for transient simulations that complements the "time-scale" approach to impact assessment and allows for time-dependent changes in climate and land-use and their effects.
7. explicit capacity for examining adaptation options, including outputs that allow comparisons of simulations with and without climate change.
8. economic tools for evaluation of impacts and adaptation options, specifically focusing on economic costs and benefits.

These 8 generic improvements have now been completed and tested in application to islands in the Pacific (Cook Island and FSM, see report from Prof. John Hay on the ADB Project). Testing for the AIACC study sites is currently under way.

How do the Objectives contribute to environmental sustainability

Education and training from the fundamental basis for sustainable development. This project outputs – the new model and the field survey methodologies - will be incorporated into the on-going climate training programmes at USP. The model has been used by the ADB project with study sites in FSM and Cook Islands and to show how it is possible to plan for climate proofing vulnerable sectors and climate sensitive projects to minimise damage and to ensure sustainability. These project outputs will help decision-makers in mainstreaming climate adaptation with considerable understanding of their socio-economic implications.

Future initiatives or follow up activities.

1. As part of the National Sustainable Development Strategies, Cook Islands may wish to train more people on Climate and Extreme Events using training currently available at USP.
2. It is important to have a pool of people with generic skills to address sustainable development challenges, and training utilising the outputs these projects will adequately address this need.
3. During our project work, we learned that in many situations the necessary DEM data and socioeconomic date are not available and future project work should address these gaps.
4. When completed, the findings of the CIDA Climate adaptation project, ADB climate adaptation project and this research based capacity building project must be integrated to improve climate mainstreaming activities at the national level.

For more information see: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/cgi-bin/aiacc/webdata_surveys.pl or http://www.usp.ac.fj/pace/projects/aiacc/aiacc.html